Best Bets: Inter Miami’s upset, huge road value, and more MLS bets

Backheeled Bucks

• Total Backheeled Bucks Wagered To Date: $420.00
• Total Backheeled Bucks Won To Date: $510.51
• Backheeled Bucks Net Profit: $90.51 (22% rate of return)

We cooked last weekend, nailing two of our three picks and going up big in the Backheeled Bucks department. I’d like to offer a sincere thank-you to DC United for letting the Union score six goals last weekend, which helped us in a big way. I’d also like to thank Minnesota United for taking care of business at home.

Let’s keep up our momentum, shall we? Here are my picks for this weekend’s MLS action.

FC DALLAS VS. REAL SALT LAKE

Bet: Dallas to win, over 1.5 total goals scored

Amount: $10

Odds: +125

I love the board this weekend. There are tons of good teams playing on the road and there are some solid teams playing at home that Vegas is still giving at least +100 odds. That combination of things is music to my betting ears.

With this first pick, we’re taking advantage of one of those strong lines for a home team: FC Dallas. Nico Estevez and FC Dallas are sitting in third place in the Western Conference right now and they’ve won their last three home games. I know Dallas just got smacked by Nashville SC on the road last weekend, but Jesus Ferreira should be back and ready to go against RSL after his one-game suspension for yellow card accumulation.

Real Salt Lake, for their part, have only won two of their last 10 games and are slowly slipping down the Western Conference standings. With their first-choice front line, there’s no reason why Dallas can’t take care of business at home on Saturday.

I like Dallas in this game – and with that goals qualifier, we’re squeezing a little extra value out of this bet.

CF MONTREAL AT CHICAGO FIRE

Bet: Montreal to win, over 1.5 total goals scored

Amount: $10

Odds: +240

CF Montreal came up big for us with a +250 away win against the Houston Dynamo a couple of weekends ago. So why not go back to the Montreal well?

Montreal are second in the Eastern Conference table right now, only behind the Philadelphia Union. According to American Soccer Analysis, they have the second best expected goals differential (xGD) per game in all of MLS since July 1. They’re ahead of LAFC, Minnesota, and a host of other hot teams in that metric. Oh, and let’s not forget that Djordje Mihailovic is staying in town for the rest of the season before making his move to AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands.

Looking at the other side of this matchup, the Fire have struggled against some of the best teams in the East over the last couple of weeks. They lost 2-0 to New York City FC last weekend and 4-1 to the Union the previous weekend.

Simply put, I think Montreal have more than enough quality to get all three points in Chicago on Saturday. If Wilfried Nancy’s team wins and there are at least two goals in the game, we’re walking away with an excellent return on our money.

INTER MIAMI AT NEW YORK RED BULLS

Bet: Miami to win

Amount: $5

Odds: +400

We’re not rocking with the full spread of Backheeled Bucks on this bet, but I’m intrigued enough by Inter Miami to put something on them to beat the New York Red Bulls on the road this weekend.

Since July 1, Miami and New York have averaged an almost identical xGD per game. That means both teams have done a similar job of creating a few more chances in the attack than they’re allowing in defense. Miami is hot right now, though, and the Red Bulls aren’t. That’s what makes this pick so interesting.

Inter Miami haven’t lost a game in more than a month. They’ve won three of their last four and have taken down dangerous New York City FC and Toronto FC teams along the way. Phil Neville doesn’t do anything mind-blowing tactically, but Miami look more and more like a playoff team with every passing week. The Red Bulls, on the other hand, have been struggling over the last month or so. They’ve only won two of their last seven games and they haven’t won at home since June.

June!

With Alejandro Pozuelo and Gonzalo Higuain firing in Inter Miami’s attack, this just feels like an upset waiting to happen. That +400 line could get us a lovely return, even with a lower bet amount.

TORONTO FC AT CHARLOTTE FC

Bet: Toronto to win

Amount: $5

Odds: +200

We’ve got a few Backheeled Bucks leftover, so we’re tossing them at Bob Bradley’s Toronto FC for their road game against Charlotte on Saturday.

Look, this is a borderline must-win game for Toronto. They’re sitting in 11th place in the Eastern Conference right now with only eight games left in the regular season. If they’re going to start climbing closer to the playoff line, the climb needs to start this weekend. Really, that climb should’ve started against the New England Revolution a week and a half ago, but here we are.

Toronto have the talent to start dispatching teams in the East. They’ve been stringing together some of the best underlying numbers (and some of the most entertaining performances) in MLS ever since the Italians popped up in Bradley’s starting lineup.

The same can’t be said for Charlotte, who have the third worst xGD per game in MLS since July 1, per ASA. They’re not creating much in the attack and they’re allowing far too many dangerous shots for their opponents.

Toronto FC don’t need you to open the door for them to score goals, but if Charlotte FC’s last few games are anything to go by, Charlotte just might hold the door for Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi to walk right through this weekend.

I like Toronto on the road.