Best Bets: Looking to Florida, following tradition, and more MLS bets

We came so close last weekend. Our Seattle pick came through, which almost took us back to even all on its own. But LAFC couldn’t get it done in Vancouver and Cincy was one goal away from helping us land our massive +475 bet against New England.

Such is life. But we’re still plenty positive on the season and we’re back this week to get back to our winning ways. May the Backheeled Bucks fly swiftly and sweetly into our hands.

Here are my three picks for this weekend’s MLS action.

CF MONTREAL VS. SPORTING KANSAS CITY

Bet: Montreal to win, over 1.5 total goals scored

Amount: $10

Odds: +100

The “bet on a Canadian MLS team to win at home against an extremely poor American MLS team” is a very simple and much-loved betting recipe that has been passed down through my family for generations. My grandpappy followed it. So did his grandpappy. And his. And so on and so forth.

We’re following the grandpappys’ advice on this one because, frankly, it feels like too good of an opportunity to pass up. Because the MLS transfer window opened back up yesterday, lineups and rosters will look a little different this weekend. CF Montreal hasn’t made any big moves, but even-money at home against one of the leakiest teams in MLS is a value pick.

Before we move past this one, I do want to be honest with you: Montreal just isn’t the same team without Djordje Mihailovic. Before his injury, they were one of the best and most consistently effective teams in the entire league. Now, they’re still third in the East, but they’re not as dangerous as they were with a healthy Mihailovic on the field. The good news is that he’s back training with Montreal!

Setting all of the Montreal/Djordje stuff aside, SKC have only won one MLS game since May 19. This just isn’t their year. I like Montreal at home here and at least two total goals in this game is an achievable qualifier.

INTER MIAMI AT ORLANDO CITY

Bet: Miami double chance

Amount: $10

Odds: +105

Given how Miami has played over their last few games – and given that they just made a big-time trade for Alejandro Pozuelo – it sure looks like things are trending up in South Florida.

According to American Soccer Analysis, Miami is sixth in the entire league in expected goals differential per game since May 21. Sixth! Now, I’m not ready to say that Miami is for real and I certainly don’t think they’re real contenders in the postseason (should they make it that far), but you know what? I have the exact same questions about Orlando City.

Oscar Pareja’s team is sitting in sixth in the East right now, but they have a -5 goal difference and have only won one of their last six MLS games. With my lack of confidence in Orlando, this weekend is the perfect time to look for some sort of road upset.

Miami doesn’t even have to secure all three points for us to get this pick right. If they win or draw in Orlando on Saturday night, we’re walking away with more than double our current investment.

SEATTLE SOUNDERS VS. PORTLAND TIMBERS

Bet: Seattle to win, over 1.5 total goals

Amount: $10

Odds: +115

I wanted to go bigger somehow for this last pick. I wanted to put down some sort of wild bet on El Trafico. But El Trafico is notoriously unpredictable and it doesn’t sound like Gareth Bale is playing and I’m just generally a big ole scardy cat, so here we are. Back on the Seattle train.

We never left, really.

The Sounders are injured. They’re banged up. But they’re still pumping out results. In their last three weekend games, they’ve secured a point against LAFC, beaten SKC convincingly at home, and traveled up to Toronto for another three points.

Despite missing some key players, they’re climbing up the Western Conference table with some lovely underlying numbers.

Portland, on the other hand… I’m just not there yet. Yes, it looks like Eryk Williamson is back to impacting games in a big way. Yes, there’s some real attacking talent in this team. But they give up too many chances and at this point in the Gio Savarese era, literally everyone knows what’s coming from the Timbers.

Things get crazy when the Sounders and Timbers play, but getting +115 odds on Seattle at home even with a goals qualifier is too good to pass up.