Best Bets: Philadelphia Union are flying, a St. Louis City SC cornhole set, and more MLS Bets

Backheeled Bucks

• Total Backheeled Bucks Wagered To Date: $450.00
• Total Backheeled Bucks Won To Date: $559.51
• Backheeled Bucks Net Profit: $109.51 (24% rate of return)

After another winning weekend, our supply of Backheeled Bucks is growing. Part of me thinks we should use some of our money to buy a St. Louis City SC cornhole set from MLSstore.com. The other part of me definitely thinks that we should use some of our money to buy a St. Louis City SC cornhole set from MLSstore.com.

You’d be shocked at how expensive one of those sets is, so we’ve got some more work to do this weekend if we want to airmail some bags on Decision Day.

Here are my picks for this weekend’s MLS action.

PHILADELPHIA UNION AT NEW YORK RED BULLS

Bet: Philadelphia to win

Amount: $10

Odds: +180

Right off the bat, let me run some wild Philadelphia Union numbers by you.

The Union have scored 16 goals in their last three games. The Union have scored at least four goals in four of their last five games. The Union have more wins by six goals or more than any team in MLS history – and all four of those blowout wins have come in the last two months.

Jim Curtin’s team is flying right now. After beating Atlanta United 4-1 on Wednesday evening, we might see a little rotation for their game against the New York Red Bulls on Saturday. Still, getting +180 on Philly against pretty much anybody in the league right now is a great line.

The Red Bulls, for their part, are also coming off of a midweek game. They beat CF Montreal 1-0 on Wednesday evening, which was a win that virtually guarantees them a spot in the postseason. The Philadelphia Union have the talent advantage in this game, though. Plus, they have a shot at the Supporters’ Shield now that LAFC are dropping points left and right.

I like the Union at +180.

PORTLAND TIMBERS VS. ATLANTA UNITED

Bet: Portland to win, over 1.5 total goals

Amount: $10

Odds: +140

I’m not totally in love with the Portland Timbers, but this line is one of the best this weekend when it comes combining value with realism. The Timbers are one of only a few decent teams playing at home on Saturday and Sunday that Vegas is giving positive odds.

Without the goals qualifier, a Portland home win gets you +105. That’s not bad. Adding the 1.5 goals qualifier boosts things to +140, which is even better. The Timbers have won their last two games – a 2-1 win over Seattle and a 2-1 win over Austin. They’re not analytics darlings, but Portland have an almost neutral expected goals difference per 90 minutes this year, per FBref, and they’ve been creating a healthy number of chances over the last few weeks.

Atlanta United create chances, too, which is a big part of what makes me feel so confident about there being at least two goals in this game. Atlanta create chances, but they haven’t done the best job of limiting their opponents’ chances in 2022. They’re close to the middle of the pack this year in terms of xG allowed per 90 minutes.

Between their home field advantage, some recent positive results, Sebastian Blanco’s status as an all-time MLS great, and the +140 line, Portland is a strong pick this weekend.

FC CINCINNATI VS. CHARLOTTE FC

Bet: Cincinnati to win, over 1.5 total goals

Amount: $10

Odds: +110

We’re going back to the home team well to finish things off.

My reasoning behind this pick isn’t all that complicated: I think FC Cincinnati is a better team than Charlotte FC right now. Charlotte have surpassed my expectations this year, but they’re still only sitting at a 3% chance of making the playoffs in the East, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Christian Lattanzio hasn’t had any more success getting results than Miguel Angel Ramirez did during his time leading the team.

Looking at the other side of this matchup, FC Cincinnati are currently sitting in eight place in the East with some of the better underlying numbers in their conference. Per FBref, Pat Noonan’s team is sitting at a +0.07 expected goals difference per 90 minutes, which is sixth in the East. They should be able to take care of business at home against Charlotte. If they do, we’re more than doubling our Backheeled Bucks.

We’re coming for you, St. Louis City SC cornhole set. Watch out.