It’s been fun to see projection models come into the NWSL recently. They’ve given fans the opportunity to understand just how strong their team’s position is as the regular season rounds into the home stretch.
According to those models, things are becoming clearer with four games left to play. Bay FC and the Chicago Red Stars are looking more and more like locks for the final playoff places. Despite their recent collapse, the Portland Thorns would need that collapse to continue and for Racing Louisville to surge in order to spend most of November at home. Louisville’s postseason chances seem to swing from week to week.
The margins remain very fine no matter what your team is hunting for. The above teams are trying to secure their places in the playoff field. Teams like the Kansas City Current are trying to ensure that they get multiple playoff games at home. The Orlando Pride hope to take home the Shield in order to guarantee home field advantage in the first two rounds. The size of the stakes may vary, but each team has stakes in their final four regular season contests.
So, which players will make the most difference in this hunt? Some are recent additions and others longtime veterans of their clubs. Some are cherries on top of an already delicious sundae, while others are the ice cream needed to build the sundae itself.
Let’s take a look at five such players and the impact they will have on their clubs’ stated goals in October.
Carson Pickett, Orlando Pride
Pickett started her Pride tenure on the bench, but she was always too good a player to consider as little more than bench depth.
Consider net goals added above positional average per 96 minutes, or net g+/96. The possession value stat from American Soccer Analysis measures the value of everything you do on the field, including off-the-ball defense. Pickett’s net g+/96 has been the best of any fullback this season.
Heck, it’s been a top-10 value among all players in the NWSL! Pickett has been the best fullback in the league for three straight seasons now. Her goal against the Houston Dash over the weekend was fun, but it was this pass from earlier in the half that makes you see what she is really offering the Pride from the left back position.
You can respect Carter and Hines wishing to keep continuity with an undefeated team.
But Pickett breaks the mold. Not only is she an elite passing fullback, she has also developed into an elite defensive fullback. The speed needed to be an effective attacking fullback is fading now that she’s 31, so defense is a useful skill to gain. Based on her net defensive goals added, which measures on-ball and off-ball defensive production, Pickett is only behind Sofia Huerta’s 2022 campaign with the Seattle Reign for best defensive performance by an NWSL fullback since 2016.
Orlando now has a one-woman, two-way wrecking crew patrolling the left flank who can also be an extra service provider to Barbra Banda. She’ll also prevent opposing right wings from being at all effective. That seems like a useful thing to have should Trinity Rodman or Racheal Kundananji line up against you in the postseason.
