Somebody’s gotta do it, right? Somebody has to shake you free from the entirely too optimistic feeling that accompanies the little gap between MLS Decision Day and the start of the playoffs — and it looks like this year, that somebody is me.
Look, I don’t really hate your team. I love your team. And I love you. And I want you and your team to be happy and win things and be better than everyone else and live forever and ever and ever. But consider this preparation for the inevitable sadness that will set in for sympathetic viewers of the eight (or nine!) Western Conference playoff teams that won’t be lifting MLS Cup on December 7th.
Sure, one team from the West could win the darn thing, but I’m just playing the odds here, people. I’m guarding your heart so you don’t have to.
You’re welcome.
With the postseason kicking off for Western Conference teams later today, here’s why each team out West won’t win MLS Cup.
Check out the Hater’s Guide to the Eastern Conference right here:
Joseph Lowery
LAFC, 1st in Western Conference
Why they won’t win: Because their defending takes a nose dive in big games
The underlying numbers love LAFC. With an uber-talented roster spearheaded by Denis Bouanga, they led the league in xG differential in the regular season, excelling on both sides of the ball. Why, then, am I worried about Steve Cherundolo’s team after they managed to snatch the West’s top seed from their cross-town rivals on Decision Day? I’m worried because they’ve decided not to show up in several games against other good teams this year.
There was that 5-1 loss to the Columbus Crew in LA back in July, where Wilfried Nancy’s team carved up their hosts in open play. Then there was that Leagues Cup final loss to Columbus, where LAFC’s set piece defense was, shall we say, optional. Then there was the final El Trafico of the season where…you know what, let’s just roll the tape:
LAFC’s defending on the Galaxy’s go-ahead goal in El Trafico was *shocking*.
— Joseph Lowery (@joeclowery) September 15, 2024
You can’t sit on 33% possession in the second half and make a series of mistakes like this.
Weak tackle in midfield. Bad rotations. Not enough midfield cover.
Slapstick stuff. pic.twitter.com/YD24egoc2o
Jesus Murillo hasn’t played for two months, due to injury. Even if the 30-year-old central defender gets back on the field, I’m not convinced this version of LAFC has what it takes to avoid giving up bad goals on a long playoff run.
LA Galaxy, 2nd in Western Conference
Why they won’t win: Because the attack isn’t perfect
…and with a defense like the one at Greg Vanney’s disposal, it kinda has to be.
With one of the most dominant, record-breaking attacking foursomes to ever take the field in MLS, the LA Galaxy did so well in 2024 because of their play in the final third. They were fueled by the additions of Gabriel Pec — my vote for Newcomer of the Year — and Joseph Paintsil, to the point that their points-per-game improved from last year to this year by a wider margin than any team that doesn’t rhyme with Sminter Shmiami. They led the league in xG and finished third in goals.
You get it. The attack is great. But for as good as the attack is, it’s not good enough to carry the actively bad defense through a flawless five (or six) game playoff run. LA allowed more xG than any non-wildcard playoff team and finished 26th in the league in xG allowed from set pieces, according to American Soccer Analysis.
They’ve got defensive problems on defensive problems. Hey, so do Inter Miami, right? And Tata Martino’s squad just set the points record. Well, if the Galaxy had Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez, and the rest of that crew, they’d be a true playoff threat. Instead, their best player is someone who played, like, 1,000 minutes at FC Barcelona, not one who scored, like, 1,000 goals at FC Barcelona.
Real Salt Lake, 3rd in Western Conference
Why they won’t win: Because there’s no chemistry
When Andres Gomez headed to Ligue 1 for eight-figures in the summer transfer window, RSL’s attacking cohesion followed him out the door. Despite not playing for the team since July, Gomez is still Salt Lake’s second-leading scorer and second-leading assister. He was that good — and that important — to Real Salt Lake’s early season success.
