Somebody’s gotta do it, right? Somebody has to shake you free from the entirely too optimistic feeling that accompanies the little gap between MLS Decision Day and the start of the playoffs — and it looks like this year, that somebody is me.
Look, I don’t really hate your team. I love your team. And I love you. And I want you and your team to be happy and win things and be better than everyone else and live forever and ever and ever. But consider this preparation for the inevitable sadness that will set in for sympathetic viewers of the eight (or nine!) Eastern Conference playoff teams that won’t be lifting MLS Cup on December 7th.
Sure, one team from the East could win the darn thing, but I’m just playing the odds here, people. I’m guarding your heart so you don’t have to.
You’re welcome.
With the postseason kicking off later today, here’s why each Eastern Conference team won’t win MLS Cup. Stay tuned for the Hater’s Guide to the Western Conference, which will go live tomorrow.
Inter Miami, 1st in Eastern Conference
Why they won’t win: Because Messi’s taking off during the playoffs
He’ll be back, of course. But with the November international break smack-dab in the middle of MLS’s playoff schedule, Lionel Messi is going to put some extra mileage — both airline miles and actual miles — on his legs as he suits up for Argentina in their World Cup qualifiers.
The playoffs pause after Round One for the November window, so Messi won’t miss any actual games for Miami. But it seems very possible that Argentina duty will reduce his role for Miami in one way or another in the conference semis. Anything that keeps Messi, who still managed to lead MLS in non-penalty goal contributions despite only playing 1,489 minutes this season, off the field is bad for Inter Miami and very, very good for the rest of the league.
Columbus Crew, 2nd in Eastern Conference
Why they won’t win: Because they allow good shots
Now, they don’t allow a lot of good shots. But they sure do allow good shots. According to FBref’s shot-quality metric rooted in non-penalty xG, Columbus allow the fourth-highest quality shots in the league. Opposing teams average 0.12 xG per attempt against the Crew.
If you can visualize what Wilfried Nancy’s team looks like most of the time when they’re out on the field (in possession with all 10 outfield players in the attacking half), that stat shouldn’t come as a big shock. When a team gets a breakaway, they’ve got grass on grass on grass to exploit before eventually arriving at Patrick Schulte’s goal. The beauty of Nancy’s system is that Columbus give up oh-so-few of those kinds of breaks: they finished sixth in xG allowed and fourth in actual goals allowed in the regular season. The Crew don’t lose the ball very often, and when they do they’re losing it far from their own goal.
But mistakes do happen. And when they do, Columbus’ playoff foes will be ready to pounce.
— _ (@21LBRB) October 21, 2024
FC Cincinnati, 3rd in Eastern Conference
Why they won’t win: Because they’re broken at both ends
