You’ve put turkey in your belly, you’ve secured your latest deals, and now it’s nearly time for Saturday's MLS conference finals.
In the Western Conference, we have the LA Galaxy hosting the Seattle Sounders, while the New York Red Bulls travel to Orlando City for an Eastern Conference showdown. Today, we’re diving into the numbers to see what’s worth watching in the final two games before MLS Cup.
Let’s get to it.
LA Galaxy vs. Seattle Sounders
What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? Well, we might find out when the LA Galaxy take on the Seattle Sounders in the Western Conference final.
The Galaxy put up the most non-penalty xG in 2024, while the Sounders’ defense allowed the lowest amount of non-penalty xG during the regular season. Led by Riqui Puig, Gabriel Pec, Joseph Paintsil, and Dejan Joveljic, the Galaxy have put up 15 goals in three playoff games so far. On the flip side, Seattle have only allowed two goals in three matches during the postseason, with teams struggling to get past goalkeeper Stefan Frei.
In their 2-1 conference semifinal win over LAFC, the Sounders were fueled by an excellent performance from Frei, who saved 1.9 goals above expected. It’s notable that a lot of LAFC’s efforts were the result of lower xG chances that were struck extremely well – LAFC’s xG number was 1.8, while their xG on target was 2.9. The Sounders didn’t allow great shots, but LAFC produced amazing efforts from those attempts.
The Galaxy are a different beast compared to LAFC. The team has been on a rampage during the playoffs, putting up an immense 0.21 non-penalty xG per shot against Minnesota United. However, their key man in the middle is a player you may not see on the basic box score.
Puig attempted 149 passes against Minnesota. For reference, in Stathead’s database, Puig only hit that number one other time this year (vs. Charlotte on May 18th). Joel Waterman also hit that 149 figure vs. Charlotte on October 5th. After that, we’d have to go all the way back to 2018 to find the last time somebody in MLS got close to that many passes, when Nicolas Lodeiro attempted 145 in Seattle’s team’s 3-2 penalty playoff win vs. the Portland Timbers.
Puig was everywhere in the conference semis, with the Spaniard connecting and finding his key playmakers in Pec and Paintsil more than being the sole assister. Specifically, the Galaxy played through Pec down Minnesota’s right side. Against LAFC, the Sounders sat back to prevent long balls over the top from LAFC – I’m not sure that same approach will work against one of the least direct teams in MLS. Look at where Pec received ball against Minnesota.
