On Saturday, the LA Galaxy host the New York Red Bulls in the most important game of the season: MLS Cup. But really, there’s something more important than MLS Cup, at least to us here at Backheeled. That thing, of course, is figuring out which of our MLS writers is the best at predicting MLS Cup.
Ben Wright, Arman Kafai, and Joe Lowery weigh in with their predictions for the final.
What will MLS Cup look like?
Ben Wright: It’s going to be a classic matchup of a team who is truly elite with the ball (LA Galaxy) against a team who is elite without the ball (New York Red Bulls). The Riqui Puig injury obviously takes off some of the shine, but man…this should be a fun game. I’m so excited for Saturday.
Arman Kafai: These teams are absolute polar opposites. One wants the ball, the other doesn’t. One builds slowly through shorter passes, the other wants to hit long balls and be direct. With Puig’s injury, do the Galaxy opt for a slightly more direct style of play? I expect the Red Bulls to muck things up as they have in the previous rounds. It could be ugly if the Red Bulls get it their way.
Joe Lowery: Earlier this week, Lewis Morgan just came out and said it: “Red Bull aren't a club that are going to go to many away grounds and dominate the ball. It's not really our identity.”
There you have it! The Galaxy will control the ball. I wonder how much space they’ll have to work with, though. When I asked about his team’s defensive approach on Tuesday, RBNY manager Sandro Schwarz talked about finding “the right moments” to press. I think they’ll be aggressive, but it wouldn’t shock me if the Red Bulls sit lower at times.
Joseph Lowery
How will Greg Vanney replace Riqui Puig?
Ben: He won’t. There’s quite literally no replacement for Puig on the LA Galaxy's roster or anywhere else in MLS. Puig had a staggering 14.8% of LA’s total touches this year. He averaged a ridiculous 95 passes per match in the regular season (only Houston’s Hector Herrera had more), and in the playoffs that number jumped to 123 passes per game in the playoffs. It’s insane.
Marco Reus is a fantastic playmaker in his own right, and I think he’ll be the on-paper replacement (Vanney said he has “optimism” Reus will be ready to go after a groin issue he suffered last weekend), alongside Mark Delgado and Edwin Cerrillo. But even Reus can’t replicate Puig’s game-defining orchestration. I think the Galaxy will look a whole lot more direct without Puig.
Arman: Ben’s right. It’s impossible. You can’t replace Puig in the middle. That almost 15% usage rate listed up above? Yeah, you have to go all the way back to Nicolas Lodeiro in his Seattle days to find MLS’s next most ball-dominant player in the last decade, according to American Soccer Analysis. LA will have to use an aggregate of players.
Even then, I can see the Galaxy attempting to tweak their approach and ping balls upfield to isolate Gabriel Pec and Joseph Paintsil in a more direct way, especially if Reus isn’t fully fit.
