From the roster rules to the playoff format, MLS is designed to keep all of its teams in the trophy hunt for as long as humanly possible.
While there are benefits to having late-arriving postseason contenders who can spring an upset, MLS’s existing format creates a lot of mediocrity, too. Are we supposed to believe that a team that finishes eighth in their conference and wins a wildcard game before getting trounced in the next round had a truly good season? No, the real fun is in rising above the mushy middle to become a legitimate trophy favorite. Those are the teams that often play the best soccer, drive the most eyeballs, and create the most engaging stories.
Not every team can be a trophy favorite with a real chance at the Supporters’ Shield or MLS Cup all at once. These things tend to be cyclical, with one club moving into the top tier while another descends into mediocrity (see: FC Cincinnati’s rise and Atlanta United’s fall). But because there’s so much built-in parity in MLS, becoming a trophy favorite is never too far out of reach.
As this season's trophy push nears, today we’re asking: when does each MLS team have a real chance at the Shield or MLS Cup?
Let’s assess the trophy windows for all 29 clubs.
Atlanta United
Trophy window opens: When they really dip into Uncle Arthur’s wallet
Garth Lagerwey, Atlanta United’s president and CEO, had plenty of money to work with this summer after selling three key players. He wanted to re-open Atlanta’s trophy window by splashing tens of millions on new signings, but only got one major deal over the line. In all, the Five Stripes will head into the offseason with two open Designated Player spots, some U22 Initiative work to do, a manager to hire, and a chief soccer officer to find.
The money will be there — owner Arthur Blank makes sure of that. When Lagerwey really dips into the cash reserves, Atlanta United will be a trophy threat.
Austin FC
Trophy window opens: When they alter their own solar system
Sebastian Driussi isn’t good enough to be the sun, the player around whom everyone else revolves. His off-ball movement is sharp and he’s press-resistant, but the 28-year-old isn’t truly elite at any one thing. In 2022, his late-arriving runs killed the Western Conference. Now teams know what to expect. Driussi’s goals per 90 minutes have declined year-over-year across the last three seasons while his chance creation numbers have dropped, too.
