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Revisiting my 10 MLS predictions for 2024: Just how wrong was I?

Spoiler alert: very wrong! But also, kind of right? Predicting the unpredictable is hard.

Design: Peyton Gallaher

Sometimes I try to trick people into thinking that I’m something approaching a smart soccer writer by using things like “stats” and doing silly things like “watching every single MLS game”. 

But in reality, stats or no stats, film or no film, I’m just as foolish as the next guy. I know this because only the most unwise of all unwise people tries to predict MLS, a league purpose-built for parity with thin margins separating the best from the worst. Back in preseason, I made 10 predictions for this year’s MLS season. January 3rd, 2024. That’s when the predictions went live here at Backheeled. That’s the day when I exposed my foolishness to the world. 

How did I do in my attempt to predict the unpredictable? Let’s revisit all 10 of my MLS predictions to find out.

10 MLS Predictions for 2024: Boupendza will thrive, Inter Miami’s goals, transfer records, & more
Here’s what you should expect from MLS in 2024.

The prediction: Aaron Boupendza will be the best non-Messi attacker in MLS

The result: Wrong. Super, super wrong. So wrong. Couldn’t have been more wrong.

L — and I can’t emphasize this strongly enough — OL. 

Former FC Cincinnati striker Aaron Boupendza was very much not the best attacker not named Lionel Messi in MLS this season. If you read that sentence carefully, you’ve already picked up on the biggest reason why: the dude isn’t even an MLS player. After joining Cincy in last year’s summer transfer window, Boupendza had his contract terminated by the league in August after a host of off-field issues.

To my credit, I hedged a bit in January when I wrote this in between all of the glowing words about Boupendza’s wildly impressive mix of physical and technical ability:

There were a couple of off-the-field challenges for the 27-year-old last year — and a couple of moments when he made himself look silly, instead of opposing defenders.

But there’s no talking my way out of this one. You can’t be an elite attacker if you’re not on the field (but you sure can be the league’s best player at getting into bar fights). Boupendza is now plying his trade in Romania, so…there’s that?

The prediction: At least eight players will move for $10m fees

The result: Wrong again. You’re oh-for-two, pal.

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