The Chicago Red Stars have done something shocking. No, this isn’t a hook to a TikTok.
Back on September 21st, the Red Stars somehow defeated the San Diego Wave 1-0 despite San Diego generating more than 3.5 xG. The Wave had generated the most xG in an NWSL game without a goal to show for it going back to 2016, when xG began being tracked in the league. San Diego felt cursed.
At some point during Saturday’s contest in Houston, Dash interim head coach Ricky Clarke must have had this vision dance before his eyes.
The Dash are the worst team in the league, and managed to put up three xG without a single shot finding the back of the net. Even if you accept the notion that they had more space to pour more bodies forward thanks to being down 2-0, it simply breaks the probability scale that not a single Houston shot crossed the goalmouth.
But that’s Red Stars magic for you. The team sat deservedly at the bottom of the league table in 2023, sporting the second-worst xG differential in league history. A new owner, a new front office, and a new head coach promised a new dawn in 2024 – or at least the first step on the road back to greatness.
That road proved shorter than expected. The Red Stars currently sit sixth in the table on 32 points with only three games left in the regular season, a playoff spot all but mathematically guaranteed. Head coach Lorne Donaldson and club legends Mallory Swanson and Alyssa Naeher have helped shepherd a young and inexperienced group into what can only be described as a miracle season.
And I do mean a miracle season. The Red Stars may be sixth on points, but they are 12th in expected points at 24.6. The North Carolina Courage is the only other team whose positive points-expected points gap is so large that they would swing below the playoff line if their results matched their performances. A concession of nearly seven xG across two recent games should produce disaster for a squad. Instead, Naeher added two clean sheets to her résumé.
Have the Red Stars simply been the beneficiaries of some good old-fashioned sporting devil magic? Or has Donaldson managed to devise a tactical system that allows for players to overperform their true talent?
A desperate defensive approach
First and foremost, Donaldson is a unique head coach. Jamaican by birth and a long-time local power in the Colorado soccer world, he helped develop both Swanson and Sophia Smith through his Real Colorado soccer club. He coached Jamaica to its first-ever knockout stage berth in the 2023 Women’s World Cup, too, another place where a bunch of less-talented players managed to go above their heads and taste a bit of glory.
